Since when are we finding less oil?

The oil and gas industry are self-liquidating: that is, they eliminate themselves in the long run. The beginning of this liquidation can already be seen in the discovery rates, because they are declining. The peak in oil discovery (the grey areas in the graph below) was reached in 1964. Since then, the rate of worldwide discovery has been going down.

Although the oil industry is still finding new oil and gas, it finds less and less, but, more importantly, the total found is not keeping up with consumption. On top of that, current discoveries are made at great depths under seawater, in remote areas or politically unstable countries, and are often commercially almost unexploitable.

Almost all potential oil and gas basins and provinces of the earth are known and have been explored extensively. There are next to no unexplored \'Terrae incognitae\' left in the world with significant oil and gas potential. Geographically remote and deep water oil and gas discoveries can only be economically developed and brought to market at very high prices. Such expensive fossil energy carriers are also referred to as \'Stranded oil/gas\'.

While discoveries decline, global demand (the black increasing curve in the graph above) increases by 2% a year, partly because of the industrialization of China and India, partly because of the continuously growing demand in the USA, Europe and Japan. In the not too distant future, global oil and gas supplies will, therefore, reach a point at which they will not be able to be increased.

From that moment on, demand for oil can no longer be satisfied. A global energy shortage will then make itself felt and, over time, will become more and more acute. Renewable energy carriers like water, solar, wind, geothermal, biomass and biogas will have to step in, supplemented by non-renewables like, coal and nuclear energy where useful and needed.
It will not be possible to replace all non-renewables by renewables overnight. Increases in efficiency and conservation will have to play a crucial role.